Impact of future cryospheric changes on Northern Hemisphere. Climate, green growth and society (GREENICE)
How will earth’s climate respond to future changes in sea ice and snow cover? Great uncertainty remains about how much climate change to expect in the future, so the GREENICE research project sets out to discover more about the interactions between changes in climate and changes in sea ice and snow cover.
Extreme weather events such as winter cold snaps and summer heat waves have been linked to the dramatic loss of sea ice and warming occurring in the Arctic, and to increases in Eurasian autumn and winter snow cover. Most of these changes in sea ice cover are likely a result of global warming, and thus may accelerate. Studies indicate that changes in sea ice and snow cover have a significant impact on earth’s large-scale atmospheric circulation and weather extremes, but there is still controversy over the magnitude of these impacts and their underlying mechanisms. Thus, how much the observed extreme events are caused by the loss of Arctic sea ice remains an open question.
In an era of climate change, uncertainty about future change makes it difficult for northern communities to plan their adaptation and develop strategies for sustained green growth. Utilizing thorough analysis of observations in coordination with global and regional atmospheric models, GREENICE will contribute to improving our understanding of how the atmosphere responds to changes in sea ice and snow cover.
The project aims to contribute to understanding the present and historical adaptation of arctic communities to changes in extreme weather and sea-ice, and to include local experience-based knowledge in a mutual dialogue between researchers and stakeholders. The results will be shared with local communities, integrating and relating knowledge relevant to the welfare and sustainable green growth of these communities.
Project leader: Noel Keenlyside, University of Bergen, Norway